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Lakeside forecast for May 16th

Lakeside forecast for May 16th

News 10 NBC Meteorologist Rich Caniglia pinpoints today’s lakeside community weather forecast.

U.S. Basks, Rest of the Northern Hemisphere Shivers

The average March temperature in Rochester was 47.3 degrees.  This was a remarkable 13 degrees above average.

The average winter (December-January-February) temperature in Rochester was 32.4 degrees.  This placed the winter as the fifth warmest on record.  The warmest winter in Rochester history was in 1931-32 when the average temperature reached 34.5 degrees.  (The only noteworthy item to cheer if you are a winter weather fan was the above normal snowfall that was observed in February.)

Additionally, this past winter nationally also turned out to be the 5th warmest on record.

You thus might be surprised to learn that globally, this winter was the 11th coldest on record in the 34 year satellite record.

This is attributable to the fact that parts of Europe and Asia were breaking records for low temperatures and heavy snow, while we in the States were basking in the glow of a low winter sun.

A Flaky February After All

Meteorological winter ended at midnight last night.  (Astronomical winter has about three weeks left.  And, of course, Mother Nature cares little for how we define winter with accumulating snow falling here as late as May.)  

Certainly no one should ever mistake the winter of 2011-12 as a harsh season in Rochester and the Finger Lakes.

And no one is likely to mistake this past February as a harsh month either.

But February was snowy.  In fact, it was by far the snowiest month of the season.  It was even snowier than the months of November, December and January combined.

The total Rochester snowfall for February was 27.3 inches which was 5.8 inches above normal.  And since 1980, there were only 11 February’s
when more snow fell.

By the way, while the winter nationally was unusually warm and relatively storm free, that was not the case elsewhere in the northern Hemisphere.  

High winds moving through Rochester area

Wind gusts have started knocking down trees and power lines in the Rochester area, with more powerful gusts expected overnight.

One large tree collapsed onto a house in Spencerport, and there have been several other reports of trees and lines down across the area.  Around 1,700 people were without power around 8:45 p.m., according to RG&E's website, most of them near Elmgrove Road in Greece.

The Rochester area is under High Wind Warning, and wind gusts could reach 50-60 miles per hour after midnight tonight.

For more Rochester, N.Y. news, visit our website www.whec.com 

Winter -- better late than never...?

Here is one metric provided by the National Weather Service relative to the snow drought in Rochester, which I think is symptomatic of much of the country:  In a normal winter, there are 76 days where the ground is covered be at least one inch of snow.  The record for the least amount of such days is 35.  So far this year there have been just 9 such days!  (BTW, the record for the least amount of snowfall is 11 inches which was set in the winter of 1932-33.  That record is safe.)

The other city we included in our analogue forecast for the Great Lakes was Chicago.  And there certainly has been a snow drought there, as well.  The total seasonal snowfall to date in Chicago stands at 13.9 inches.  The normal snowfall to date is 22.9 inches and by this time last year there had been 50.1 inches of snow.

The numbers in Rochester and Chicago are consistent with what our analogue forecast suggested.  So far, so good.

A Fab February for Flakes?

When I shared some of our long range thoughts about the winter back in early December, I presented my rationale for suggesting that our best shot at serious and sustained winter weather this season would come in February.

If you are new to this blog I would ask you to read the previous blogs so as to help add perspective as to where we stand today and to acquaint yourself with some meteorological jargon.

Today we are going to take a look at the month of February.  

So, let’s see where we are:  During the first week of the month we will be in a +PNA pattern which means a warm and dry ridge will rule most of the west, while a cold and potentially wet trough will dominate much of the east.

Winter: The Coming Highs and Lows

The cold air coming to the Midwest and Northeast over the next 10 days will come in two or three surges with a spell of modestly milder air coming after each surge. This will result from the NAO going negative (please see our first blog in December for terminology explanations) during a developing +PNA pattern. This will allow Siberian air to cross over the North Pole, rush through Canada and then enter the United States via potent arctic fronts.

The –NAO appears likely to have resulted from the stratospheric warming event that we detailed several weeks ago.  The result is going to be more typical winter conditions across the northern third of the country over the next one to two weeks, including air that is colder than normal more times than not and enhanced risks of accumulating snow.  For Rochester and the Finger Lakes this means more snow and more cold than we have seen so far this winter, not that that is saying much.