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U.S. Basks, Rest of the Northern Hemisphere Shivers | Environment

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U.S. Basks, Rest of the Northern Hemisphere Shivers
Environment, Weather

The average March temperature in Rochester was 47.3 degrees.  This was a remarkable 13 degrees above average.

The average winter (December-January-February) temperature in Rochester was 32.4 degrees.  This placed the winter as the fifth warmest on record.  The warmest winter in Rochester history was in 1931-32 when the average temperature reached 34.5 degrees.  (The only noteworthy item to cheer if you are a winter weather fan was the above normal snowfall that was observed in February.)

Additionally, this past winter nationally also turned out to be the 5th warmest on record.

You thus might be surprised to learn that globally, this winter was the 11th coldest on record in the 34 year satellite record.

This is attributable to the fact that parts of Europe and Asia were breaking records for low temperatures and heavy snow, while we in the States were basking in the glow of a low winter sun.

Looking ahead, we are moving hemispherically from a weak La Nina pattern to a weak El Nino pattern.  This, combined with other global indicators that we track, suggests to us that temperatures in Rochester and the lower Great Lakes region will average slightly below normal for the upcoming period of April, May and June.  This does not mean to suggest that there won’t be warm days, even a few hot ones.  But we think there are sufficiently strong signals to suggest that the spring and early summer will not be hot or even especially warm in terms of the over all average temperature.

As usual, signals for predicting rainfall are less robust and reliable.  But if cool high pressure is the ruling force in the lower Great Lakes for the spring and early summer, a case could be made for below normal rainfall.  It must be remembered, however, that all it takes is one rogue, drenching thunderstorm sitting over Rochester for a couple of hours to really skew the data.

Environment, Weather

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